Shipping Might be a Big Problem

Remember Amazon's climate pledge from back in 2019, where Jeff Bezos vowed to cut Amazon's carbon footprint? Well that was a smoke screen.

Amazon's emissions from shipping packages have increased 75 percent since 2019, from 3.3 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2019 to 5.8 million tons in 2023. The 2.5-million-ton difference is the equivalent of putting 595,000 additional gas-powered cars on the road for a year (Source: Wired.com).

Lets pause for a second. My goal is not to "radicalize" you. It's easy to get people riled up by throwing big numbers out there, using obscure wording, and communicating in a passionate tone. So, here's what I'll do. I'll first put all the facts and numbers out there, both in absolute and in relative terms, so you can decide whether what we're going to talk about here is worth feeling passionate about or not. And then, I'll share my personal thoughts for why I think this is a big deal.

Okay - let's start with a quick example.

Anti-Wind Energy Groups: Wind turbines killed close to 250,000 birds in 2017

Source: U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (2017)

Yes, that's a pretty big number. However, let's zoom out...

Source: U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (2017)

Yes, bird deaths caused by wind turbines are a problem. But, when you zoom out, you'll find that its true magnitude is a blip in the grand scheme of things. To the wind industry's credit - it is heavily invested in minimizing bird mortality rates connected to wind turbine collisions and is doing a lot about it (for instance - 17,000 results popped-up when I looked up "wind turbine bird mortality" on Google Scholar).

Okay, let's get back to understanding whether shipping is a sizable problem or not. I'll put some numbers out there, and I'll share their sources. I'll stop short of drawing conclusions for you (but I will still share my conclusions with you).

In 2020, transportation accounted for 27% of the US' total greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions (roughly 1,600 million tons of CO2), making it the biggest bucket by sector type. Followed by electricity production, industry, agriculture, commercial, and residential, in that order.

Source: The National Public Utilities Council (NPUC)

Unfortunately, I haven't found reliable numbers on e-commerce's contribution to the total emissions by the transportation sector. However, we can work our way to an educated guess,

First, let's assume that ground transportation of our packages in the US happens by classes of vehicles we'll call Light-Duty Trucks, Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks. About 60% of the emissions within the transportation sector come from Light-Duty Trucks, Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks (Source: EPA).

Source: EPA (2020)

But keep in mind that not all light-, medium- and heavy-duty trucks are being used by e-commerce for shipping & delivery of our packages. Wholesale & Retail Trade represents 31% of the US' logistics market. About 18% of wholesale & retail trade is e-commerce (by market share). So, e-commerce represents about 6% of the US' logistics market.

Source: United States Freight and Logistics Market SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS & FORECASTS UP TO 2030

Putting it all together: E-commerce has a 6% market share of an industry (logistics) that makes up 60% of the emissions coming from the most polluting sector -Transportation (27% of all US emissions, or 1,600 million tons of CO2). That equates to up-to 60-million tons of CO2 emitted every year from shipping activities of the' e-commerce industry of the US; or 1% of all annual CO2 emissions from the US.

As promised, I tried to minimize my bias in the above assessment, and instead saved my personal opinions for the second half of this article.

This is the part where I'm thinking out loud about how I interpret the above calculations:

Amazon's emissions from shipping packages in 2020 were about 4 million tons of CO2. That's equivalent to Amazon adding about 1-million gas-powered vehicles to the US' roads for an entire year. There's a few other giants in the e-commerce sector of the US, of which, Amazon represents a 38% market share of. Which means that E-commerce in the US has a footprint so large, it's like having almost 3-million gas-powered vehicles on the road for a year. Now, zoom out even further and try and visualize the scale of emissions on a global-scale.

Sure, a 1% carbon footprint of e-commerce's shipping may seem tiny, but this is where seeing things in relative terms might help.. Data centers in the US emit about 2% of the total emissions in the US. Anytime we are accessing the internet -for storing files, accessing social media, video conferencing, shopping, watching videos, & so on- we're communicating with data centers that host pretty much all of our digital data. If the US' entire digital footprint emits 2% of the country's total annual CO2, online shopping's 1% doesn't seem too small anymore.

What about emissions from other aspects of e-commerce? The contents of the packages getting delivered to us have their own associated carbon emissions. It's highly likely that the raw materials for the contents of your package were sourced in some other country, processed & manufactured in yet another country, assembled in yet another country, before being shipped to some location within the US, before making its final journey to your address.

E-commerce isn't just a big polluting industry in and of itself, it's also an enabler of more emissions from the other sectors.

My thoughts? Shipping is a problem that needs to be addressed for the sake of this planet's well-being. Solution? There may be a few.

Firstly, given the magnitude of the established systems we're talking about, individual changes in lifestyle are insignificant, in isolation. We need system-level transformations which can only be achieved via policy changes - so vote accordingly, because your vote matters. Hold your representatives accountable. Get involved in your local & state politics.

At the individual-level, ditch the billionaires and support your local economy instead (your neighbors, local retailers, farmers markets, etc.). Remember the 3 R's? Reduce your consumption, Reuse what you already own, and Recycle. If you absolutely need to buy something, look around in your local thrift stores (like Goodwill). If thrift stores don't have what you need (ask yourself again if you really need it, and then), look for locally manufactured options. And last resort - look online. But look for ethical online retailers. Keep an eye out for carbon neutral shipping, plastic-free products, and key certifications like - Fair Trade USA™, Forest Stewardship Council® (FSC), Certified B Corporations.

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Additional articles I Recommend Reading:

• Amazon’s Shipping and Delivery Emissions Just Keep Going Up (Wired.com)

  • Reliance on Air Freight: The company’s aggressive expansion and focus on rapid delivery have led to a heavy reliance on air transportation, which is difficult to decarbonize.

  • Limited Impact of Electric Vans: Even if Amazon meets its 100,000 EV goal, it would only cover a third of the company’s deliveries at its current growth rate. At this pace, 400,000 EVs would be needed to make a significant impact.

  • Sustainability Commitments Questioned: Amazon has faced scrutiny for dropping its goal to make half its shipments carbon neutral by 2030 and for failing to meet UN-backed climate targets.

• Amazon’s U.S. transportation pollution surges since company announced ‘Climate Pledge’ five years ago (Pacific Environment)

• Visualizing U.S. Emissions by Sector (NPUC)